By Diamond Dave Davenport
I’m going to put my prediction out there before the season even starts.
I think the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South.
Jacksonville is coming off a 13-win season and an AFC South championship. Houston won 12 games and is still going to be a problem. Tennessee has made improvements around Cam Ward.
I understand why Indianapolis might not be everybody’s pick.
But when I look at what the Colts were doing before injuries destroyed their season last year, and then look at what they have done this offseason, I see a team that has a real opportunity to take this division.
For me, everything starts with one player.
Daniel Jones.
If Jones stays healthy, I believe Indianapolis is the best team in the AFC South.
We Already Saw What This Offense Can Do
People are going to look at the Colts’ final 8-9 record last season and forget what happened before everything fell apart.
Indianapolis started 8-2.
During those first 10 games, the Colts were scoring 31.7 points per game, which led the NFL. They also had a plus-115 point differential. Jones completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 2,659 yards and had a 101.6 passer rating during that stretch.
That was not a mediocre offense getting lucky.
For 10 games, Indianapolis had one of the best offenses in football.
Then Jones came out of the bye dealing with a fractured fibula. He fought through it against Kansas City, Houston and Jacksonville before tearing his Achilles against the Jaguars.
After that, the season was basically over.
The Colts lost their final seven games overall. In the four games after Jones suffered the Achilles injury, Indianapolis went 0-4 and scored 16, 27, 17 and 30 points—an average of 22.5 per game.
Compare that with 31.7 points per game when Jones and the offense were rolling before the bye.
That is a pretty massive difference.
And I know there were other injuries. I know the schedule became tougher. Football is never as simple as saying one player caused every win or loss.
But anybody who watched this team could see it.
The Colts were not the same football team after Daniel Jones got hurt.
Daniel Jones Has Some Dog in Him
Jones finished last season with 3,101 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing 68 percent of his passes. His 100.2 passer rating ranked sixth in the NFL.
But the statistics are only part of why I like him leading this team.
The guy played through a broken fibula.
Think about that for a second.
We are talking about playing quarterback in the NFL while dealing with a broken bone in your leg, knowing defensive linemen weighing 300 pounds are trying to put you into the ground every play.
Jones kept going.
That tells me something about him.
He has some dog in him.
When we had the opportunity to watch the Colts at training camp, Jones looked strong throwing the football. He looked comfortable moving around, and he did not look like a quarterback afraid of that Achilles.
The reports coming out of camp have been positive as well, with Jones continuing to work as the Colts’ first-team quarterback after being cleared for football activities.
That does not guarantee he stays healthy for 17 games.
Nobody can guarantee that.
But if he does?
Watch out.
The Colts Didn’t Sit Around This Offseason
This is another reason I like Indianapolis to win the division.
The Colts did not look at an 8-9 finish and say, “Well, hopefully everybody gets healthy and things work out.”
They made moves.
First, they made sure Daniel Jones came back.
Indianapolis re-signed Jones after the quarterback showed enough last season to convince the organization he could be more than a one-year experiment.
Then they kept one of his biggest weapons.
Alec Pierce re-signed with Indianapolis after establishing himself as one of the NFL’s most dangerous downfield receivers. Keeping that Jones-to-Pierce connection together was huge for an offense that does not need to be completely rebuilt—it just needs to get healthy again.
Then, just days ago, the Colts made another statement.
They extended Jonathan Taylor.
Taylor is now under contract through the 2028 season after a 2025 season in which he led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns and 20 total touchdowns.
So think about what Indianapolis has done offensively.
Daniel Jones is back.
Jonathan Taylor is locked in.
Alec Pierce is staying.
Josh Downs is still there.
Tyler Warren is another year older.
And the Colts also added veteran wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, giving the offense another experienced target and another guy who can compete for that No. 3 receiver role. Westbrook-Ikhine has 19 receiving touchdowns over his NFL career.
That offense was already capable of putting up more than 30 points per game.
They did not need to blow it up.
They needed to keep the important pieces together.
That is exactly what they did.
The Defense Got a Makeover Too
This might be the most overlooked part of the Colts’ offseason.
Indianapolis attacked the defensive side of the ball.
They added Arden Key and Micheal Clemons at defensive end.
They brought in Derrick Nnadi and Jerry Tillery at defensive tackle and acquired Colby Wooden in a trade.
They signed linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither.
They added cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt.
Then they brought in safeties Jonathan Owens and Juanyeh Thomas, along with additional secondary help.
Do all of those names automatically turn Indianapolis into the 2000 Ravens defense?
Obviously not.
But look at what Chris Ballard was trying to accomplish.
Depth.
Veteran experience.
Pass rush.
More options in the secondary.
More players who can rotate through a long NFL season without the defense completely falling apart when somebody gets hurt.
That matters after watching injuries pile up last season.
And we cannot forget about Sauce Gardner.
The Colts gave up two first-round picks and Adonai Mitchell to acquire Gardner from the Jets during last season. Because of injuries, Indianapolis never really got to see the full version of a secondary featuring Gardner and Charvarius Ward together.
Now both are healthy and practicing together in camp.
That could completely change this defense.
A healthy Sauce Gardner on one side and Charvarius Ward on the other gives defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo options he simply did not consistently have last season.
Add more depth up front and more pass-rush options behind them, and suddenly this Colts defense looks a lot more interesting.
This Feels Like a Team That Knows Its Window Is Open
That is the overall message I get from the Colts’ offseason.
They are not rebuilding.
You do not extend Jonathan Taylor, pay Daniel Jones, keep Alec Pierce, trade two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner and add this many veterans because you are planning on being competitive three years from now.
You make those moves because you believe you can win now.
There is pressure on this team.
There should be.
The Colts have not won the AFC South since 2014.
That is way too long.
Indianapolis has spent years searching for stability at quarterback since Andrew Luck retired. If Jones really is the answer, then there are no more excuses.
It is time to win the division.
Why I Think Jacksonville Comes Back to Earth
Let me make something clear about Jacksonville.
I do not think the Jaguars are bad.
Trevor Lawrence took a major step last season. Liam Coen did a great job in his first year, and Jacksonville absolutely earned its 13-4 record and division championship.
But repeating 13 wins is difficult.
Even Coen has acknowledged that Jacksonville could actually improve as a football team this year and still not win 13 games again.
The Jaguars also lost some important defensive players this offseason.
Linebacker Devin Lloyd left in free agency. Safety Andrew Wingard departed. Cornerback Greg Newsome II also left, creating holes throughout the back seven of a defense that was a big part of Jacksonville’s turnaround last season.
That is where I think regression can hit them.
Not necessarily Trevor Lawrence suddenly becoming bad.
Not Liam Coen suddenly forgetting how to coach.
I just do not think everything breaks Jacksonville’s way again.
Maybe a couple of close games go the other direction.
Maybe the defense does not make quite as many big plays.
Maybe losing a couple of veteran defenders matters more than expected.
A 13-win team can regress to nine or 10 wins and still be a pretty good football team.
That is where I see Jacksonville.
Still dangerous.
Still capable of making the playoffs.
But not running away with this division.
Houston Is the Team That Worries Me
If there is one team that could make this Colts prediction look stupid by December, it might be Houston.
The Texans are not going anywhere.
C.J. Stroud is still their quarterback, and Houston spent this offseason trying to fix one of its biggest problems from last year—the offensive line.
The Texans added veteran guard Wyatt Teller and former Colts tackle Braden Smith while also drafting offensive lineman Keylan Rutledge in the first round.
They also acquired running back David Montgomery, which should take some pressure off Stroud and give Houston more balance offensively.
And that defense is still going to make life miserable for people.
That is why I have Houston fighting Jacksonville for second place instead of falling off.
If Stroud takes another step and that offensive line comes together, Houston could absolutely win this division.
But I still like Indianapolis.
Tennessee Is Better, But I Still Have Them Last
Tennessee deserves some credit too.
The Titans are trying to build properly around Cam Ward instead of throwing him onto the field and hoping he magically fixes everything.
They used the fourth overall pick on Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate, giving Ward another young weapon, and the organization has continued working to improve the roster around its second-year quarterback.
I think Ward has a chance to become a very good NFL quarterback.
But I still think Tennessee is a year or two behind the other three teams in this division.
Indianapolis is trying to win now.
Houston is trying to win now.
Jacksonville just won 13 games.
Tennessee is still figuring out exactly what it has.
That is why I have the Titans finishing fourth.
My AFC South Prediction
If I had to make the call today, this is where I see the division finishing:
Indianapolis Colts: 11-6
Houston Texans: 10-7
Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8
Tennessee Titans: 6-11
And yes, Colts fans, I know what you are thinking.
We have heard optimism before.
We have watched this franchise enter seasons believing it had finally figured everything out, only for something to fall apart.
That is fair.
But last year was different to me because we actually saw it work.
Indianapolis was 8-2.
The Colts were scoring more points than anybody in football.
Daniel Jones was playing some of the best football of his career.
Jonathan Taylor was dominating.
Then the quarterback got hurt, other injuries piled up and the season went completely off the rails.
Now Indianapolis gets another shot.
Jones is back.
Taylor is locked up.
Pierce is back.
The defensive front has more depth.
The secondary has been reinforced.
Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward finally have an opportunity to be on the field together.
This is not a rebuilding football team.
The Colts have pushed their chips toward the middle of the table.
Now they have to prove it.
For me, the entire AFC South comes down to Daniel Jones’ health.
If Jones misses significant time again, Indianapolis could find itself fighting just to stay in the playoff conversation.
But if Daniel Jones gives this team a healthy season and looks anything like the quarterback who helped Indianapolis start 8-2 last year?
I believe the Colts win the AFC South.
We already saw what this team can do.
Now it is time to finish the job.
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